Subjective Probability
Quite often, we come across statements as follows:
(i) An old man says that the chance of rain on a particular given day is 60 percent.
(ii) An expert of cricket says that the chance of India’s winning the triangular one day cricket series against South Africa is 40 percent.
In all the above cases, the probabilities (chances) of occurrence of the corresponding events are assigned by individuals and are based on their personal judgement, wisdom, intuition and expertise. These probabilities are called the subjective probabilities and represent the degree of belief and the confidence, one has in the occurrence of the respective event. Such probabilities can be calculated in all the cases, though the probabilities assigned by different persons to the same event may vary from person to person.
